Global Macro Trends
Resilient Growth in an Era of Strategic Realignment and Elevated Uncertainty
February 2026
The renewed role of diplomacy as a driving force in geopolitical developments and trade disputes has led to a partial easing of global uncertainty, a trend reflected in the stabilisation of gold prices and the slowdown in the depreciation of the US dollar. Nevertheless, concerns persist, as forecasts can no longer be underpinned by solid assumptions. Moreover, the long-standing relationship of trust and cooperation between the United States and its key allies - established in the aftermath of the Second World War - has been significantly undermined, prompting the latter to seek new strategic partnerships that would afford them greater autonomy and strategic flexibility. At the same time, developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), together with the very large-scale investments directed towards it, are raising concerns within the investment community, both regarding their returns and their potential adverse impact on the profitability of other sectors - such as providers of data collection and processing services. These concerns are fuelled by growing expectations that the integration of AI into day-to-day business operations will occur more rapidly than initially anticipated. As a result, uncertainty and volatility in international financial markets have increased noticeably in recent months. Nonetheless, economic activity in the major economies continues to expand at a broadly satisfactory pace.
In the United States, economic growth in 2025 is expected to moderate to around 2.2% (2024: 2.8%), while inflation remains contained, close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Labour market conditions remain relatively solid, characterised by a limited pace of both job creation and layoffs. At the same time, the US President announced a preference for Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, while a bipartisan agreement on the federal budget was reached, preventing a further shutdown of non essential federal government services until the end of September. Finally, market participants are closely awaiting the Supreme Court’s ruling on the constitutionality of the so called “reciprocal” tariffs.
In the euro area, economic growth in 2025 is projected at 1.5% (2024: 0.9%), while inflation remains broadly stable around the European Central Bank’s 2% target and the unemployment rate stands at a historic low. At the same time, leading economic indicators, although still subdued, are overall showing some encouraging signs. Looking ahead, increased defence spending, efforts to restore—over the medium to long term—a greater degree of EU strategic autonomy in critical resources and technologies, as well as the expansion of economic partnerships with third countries (such as the Mercosur countries and India), are expected to be among the key issues commanding attention over the course of the year.
In China, the economic data currently being released are very limited due to the Lunar New Year holiday period. Looking ahead to 2026, the challenge of maintaining a strong growth momentum is expected to hinge on a strengthening of domestic demand, as the scope for a further significant expansion in exports appears constrained by international developments—such as US tariffs and the European Union’s efforts to curb Chinese exports.