September 2025
- At the beginning of 2024, we analysed housing unit stock data from the censuses of 2011 and 2021 to identify the main factors behind the increase in residential real estate prices. At that point, detailed information was only available from the 2011 Census, while for 2021, we had data on the number of households, corresponding to the number of primary residences.
- We then sought to estimate the current housing stock by accounting for construction activity between the two censuses and the impact of a relatively new and emerging demand factor, the short-term accommodation.
- With the recent release of detailed data on residential stock and its uses, alongside official figures on short-term accommodation from ELSTAT, we now have a fuller understanding of the real situation.
- This enables us to update our calculations on the supply and demand dynamics in the residential real estate market and identify the real reasons behind price increases. Our initial intuition about the drivers are validated, although the figures need updating based on the new data.
- Comparing actual figures to our estimates, we underestimated total residences by 70,000. Short-stay accommodations were 38,000 higher than expected. That led to an underestimation of vacant houses, causing us to conclude that the shortage of available homes since 2011 was greater by 32,000, reaching 212,000.
- According to the actual data, total domestic residences increased by 3.5% between the two censuses, while primary residences grew by 4.8%.
- Seasonal vacant housing units saw a significant rise of 17.4%, suggesting growth in tourism-related properties. Conversely, vacancies for rent and sale dropped by 10.4% and 33.1%, respectively.
- Considering the reduced availability of houses due to short-stay rentals, approximately 180,000 residences have been withdrawn from the market since 2011, indicating tighter housing supply conditions.
- Given the current levels of construction activity, it will take 5 years for new housing supply to cover this shortfall of 180k residences.